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Bet log

Dated bets

A call, the date, and the reasoning. Falsifiability is the feature. A log with recorded misses is the only kind anyone believes.

  • Aug 15, 2026 Open

    RLM removes the context ceiling. The unlock is at the intersection of RLM, retrieval that stuffs the REPL with existing art, and memory that distinguishes what is forever-true from what should be forgotten.

  • Aug 15, 2026 Open

    The right harness shape is RLM + GEPA + dspy.FLEX, with expensive frontier models driving cheaper models as workhorses.

  • Aug 5, 2026 Open

    The agent harness is solved. Synthesis is not.

  • Feb 6, 2025 Resolved — right

    Long context windows buy retrieval. They do not buy correlation.